Counter-UAS: The €30 Billion Arms Race Reshaping European Air Defence

The counter-unmanned aerial systems (C-UAS) market has undergone a structural shift. What was a niche capability five years ago is now the single most urgent procurement priority across NATO and allied nations. Our database tracks 165 counter-UAS contracts worth an estimated €29.9 billion across 16 countries — a figure that has more than tripled since 2022.

The acceleration is not gradual. In 2022, we recorded 13 C-UAS contract actions. In 2024, that figure rose to 23. In 2025, it reached 38 — and the year is not over.

The Numbers

Based on our analysis of 165 tracked contracts with a combined estimated value of €29.9 billion:

Germany dominates European C-UAS spending at €9.6 billion, driven almost entirely by Rheinmetall's Skyranger 30 programme. The initial NNbS order of 19 systems (EUR 595 million, awarded February 2024) was followed by an anticipated framework for 500-600 additional systems valued at EUR 7-9 billion, with delivery through 2035. Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger confirmed this figure during an earnings call. At an estimated unit cost of EUR 10-12 million per system, the economics are consistent.

Israel accounts for €5.3 billion in tracked value, reflecting both the Iron Beam directed-energy programme and broader air defence expansion. Iron Beam became operational in December 2025 after more than a decade of development, operating at 100 kilowatts of power with an engagement cost estimated at USD 3 per interception — a figure that fundamentally changes the cost calculus of counter-drone warfare.

Poland has committed €5.2 billion, anchored by the SAN anti-drone system contract awarded to Kongsberg/PGZ in February 2026 (EUR 4.2 billion for 18 batteries, approximately 700 vehicles, delivery 2026-2028) and WB Group's FlyEye framework. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk described the SAN contract as "a historic moment" and "an absolute breakthrough" for NATO's eastern flank defence.

The United States has 69 tracked C-UAS contracts worth €4.9 billion, distributed across multiple programmes. Key awards include RTX's Coyote 2C interceptors (6,700 units planned through 2029), Anduril's USD 250 million Roadrunner contract (October 2024), and Epirus's Leonidas high-power microwave systems — which demonstrated 100% effectiveness against 61 consecutive drone targets in DoD testing, including a 49-drone swarm in a single burst.

Greece's €3.2 billion commitment to Israeli air defence systems (Barak MX, David's Sling, Spyder) represents the largest single procurement in Greek defence history, reflecting both regional threat perceptions and the operational credibility of Israeli systems proven in multiple conflicts.

Market Context

North America accounts for 40-52% of the global market, but the fastest growth is in Europe, where procurement has been catalysed by the conflict in Ukraine and documented Russian drone incursions into NATO airspace.

The Ukraine Effect

The data tells a clear story of acceleration. Before 2022, C-UAS contracts in our database averaged 5-6 per year. After Russia's invasion of Ukraine, that figure jumped to 13 (2022), 15 (2023), 23 (2024), and 38 (2025). The conflict demonstrated three realities that defence planners could no longer ignore:

Who Is Winning

Rheinmetall leads the European market with Skyranger 30 orders from Germany, Austria (36 systems), Denmark (16 turrets), the Netherlands, and emerging interest from Lithuania and Hungary. The combined portfolio represents EUR 8-10 billion in revenue through the mid-2030s.

RTX (Raytheon) maintains the broadest US portfolio — Coyote interceptors, LIDS integration, radar/EW, and directed energy. Planned procurement of 6,700 Coyote 2C interceptors through 2029 represents the largest kinetic C-UAS commitment by a single buyer.

Anduril Industries has grown fastest. From a USD 1 billion SOCOM IDIQ in January 2022 to a USD 250 million Roadrunner production contract in October 2024 to Navy destroyer integration in March 2025 — the company's trajectory reflects a broader shift toward software-defined, AI-enabled defence systems.

Rafael/IAI dominate the directed-energy segment with Iron Beam and have secured Greece's EUR 3.2 billion order, the largest Israeli defence export of its kind.

Epirus occupies a unique niche in high-power microwave, with Leonidas systems demonstrating counter-swarm capability that no kinetic system can match.

Emerging Technologies

Three technology categories are reshaping C-UAS procurement:

Directed energy — both laser (Iron Beam at 100kW, Rheinmetall developing 20-100kW integration for Skyranger) and high-power microwave (Epirus Leonidas). The economics are compelling: near-zero cost per engagement, unlimited magazine depth, and speed-of-light engagement.

Autonomous interceptors — Anduril's recoverable Roadrunner and RTX's expendable Coyote represent different approaches to the same problem: cost-effective kinetic defeat of low-cost drones without expending high-value missiles.

AI-enabled C2 — IAI's autonomous swarm management, Anduril's Lattice platform, and DroneShield's DroneSentry-C2 reflect a convergence toward machine-speed decision-making. When a swarm of 49 drones attacks simultaneously, human-in-the-loop response times are insufficient.

What This Means

For procurement officers: the window for early-mover advantage in establishing C-UAS industrial partnerships is closing. Rheinmetall's order book extends to 2035. Anduril's Roadrunner production is scaling. The question is no longer whether to invest, but whether you can secure delivery slots.

For industry: the market rewards both scale (Rheinmetall, RTX) and innovation (Anduril, Epirus). The cost-exchange ratio problem means that directed energy and autonomous systems will increasingly displace traditional kinetic solutions for the C-UAS mission.

For analysts: the EUR 29.9 billion we track is likely conservative. Many contracts lack public value disclosure, US micro-purchases are excluded, and several nations' classified programmes are not captured. The true committed spend on counter-drone capability is almost certainly higher.

Data based on Drone Consult's database of 165 counter-UAS contracts across 16 countries. Values converted to EUR at fixed rates (USD: 0.92, GBP: 1.17, PLN: 0.23). Market estimates sourced from Markets&Markets, Mordor Intelligence, Fortune Business Insights, and Grand View Research. Contract details verified against TED, SAM.gov, UK Contracts Finder, and primary sources including Rheinmetall, Anduril, and national defence ministry announcements.